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Possible Chase Today...



Possible chase today over ECO.  The SPC has everything East of Deertrail under a Slight Risk and the far SE corner under a Moderate Risk.






The 2% tornado risk starts around Deertrail and jumps to 5% near Flagler; in far SE CO near La Junta the risk goes up to 10%.  A dryline is forecasted to set up near the CO/KS boarder later today, decent CAPE and good shear will lead to severe storms today.  Main severe threat looks to be E of Limon, we'll see what the updates look like in a few hours.


Updated Tornado Probability



Well the 2% risk has been pushed back West to about the Bennett area.  BOU's hazards outlook only talks about severe wx east of the Limon area.  I'm not exactly sure how everything will set up today, but that's okay since it seems no one else in the weather community is either.  Although there is limited CAPE of 250-500 right now in the DIA area, very strong multi-directional shear profiles and the southerly moving trough are sparking my interest in an Adams / Arapahoe  chase for the initial storms.  Last night around 0100hrs several T-Storms fired and died over central Elbert County; with south movement anything that pops near the Adams / Arapahoe line could move into a left over boundry from very early today.  This is kind of a long shot but it makes sense in my head for now.  SPC currenlty has a MCD for far SE CO and points East with a watch likely.  I'll wait to see what the watch will look like and for any additional MCD's covering farther west to make my final go, no go call.


Tornado Watch Issued



SPC issued a Tornado Watch for everything East of Denver.  I headed out ot Bennett around 1pm to catch the early stuff if it came.  Conditions looked quite mild ahead of the trough so I went to the Library for some internet access.  The area was still under a watch likely because of the great wind shear but there was zero CAPE from Denver East to Limon.  I watched for any towers going up ahead of the energy from the North but the cloud field wasn't doing anything.  Decided to call it quits and head home, by the time I got back in town the watch had been canceled for everything except the boarder counties with KS. 


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